The Phat Phree Staff made predictions prior to the 2006 Major League Baseball season. Actually, we delinquently did so more than a week into the schedule, but thats neither here, nor there. The point is that, unlike the many pundits out there, were willing to testify to put ourselves up on the stand - and own up to those aforementioned predictions. Despite the fact that some of them were as horrifying as the Rocky VI trailer.
The first half of the MLB baseball season had its precious moments, but most of it was as predictable as a Bill Simmons NBA rant: Ozzie Guillens loud mouth and accompanying triple chin offended some people with off-color commentary, Barry Bonds remains an arrogant, detestable cheater, A-Rod got huge hits in very un-huge moments, Bud Selig, for the 27th consecutive year, edged out Bill Gates as the biggest nerd on the planet and Tim McCarver slammed into broadcast journalisms bedrock, yet continued to dig with blue-collar intensity.
Before each contributor turns the interrogation light around and into their own eyes, lets first hand out some first-half accolades as they apply to the Staffs American League predictions:
The Phat Prees First Half, AL Nostradamus Awards
The Sigourney Weaver Love Scene Awards a.k.a. The WORST A.L. Predictions by the TPP Staff
Matthew L. McCoy: Baseball's favorite nice guy, Randy Johnson, looks in form to make a run at this years Cy Young. -Randy Johnson winning the Cy Young this year is about as likely as him co-starring with Hideki Matsui in a Noxzema commercial.
Charlie DeMarco: Jarrod Washburn was a steal. -Not even if he played for free.
(On the Detroit Tigers) Mike Hagesfeld: No, they arent going anywhere this year, but respectability is a good goal on the way to contention. -If by anywhere, Mike meant best record in baseball, than he was unequivocally correct.
Matthew L. McCoy: Look for Roger Clemens to join the Red Sox sometime in June. -Or the Astros, but we shouldn't fret over minor details.
Mike Hagesfeld: The Thome move is more questionable. -30 homers? Bah, what a pussy.
The Shawshank Redemption Ending Scene Awards a.k.a. The BEST A.L. Predictions by the TPP Staff
Matthew L. McCoy: Keep your eye out for the next Clemens, Jonathan PapelbonIn 1988 Topps-speak, hes a Future Star. -Ding! Ding! Ding! Winner.
Mike Hagesfeld: Their main rotation of super-stud Johan Santana, Brad Radke, walk-allergic Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse can definitely be put up with any in the Majors. Their fifth starter possibilities are Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano, both of whom are youngsters with loads of potential. -Clearly.
Mike Hagesfeld: Overall, I see the Indians taking a step backward this year. -Theyve taken two steps toward the door for sure.
Charlie DeMarco: Honestly, I dont have any idea which of those three will win the division, but I do know for certain that Seattle stinks. -You cant get anymore prescient than that, folks.
(On the Red Sox) Matthew L. McCoy: The defense behind their pitching staff is unmatched in baseball. -Giddyup.
The John Namath, Super Bowl III Awards a.k.a. Fuck You Commenters, We Told You So
Commenter Dino: The Red Sox had a Cinderella season just like every other team. Its about time everyone took them off that pedestal and actually focus on good teams. -Ah, Dino, the Red Sox are leading the AL East by three games. Now get back in your Bronto-pen before Fred and Wilma come home.
Commenter(s) Tangent Guys: The Red Sux don't even have the best defense in their division, let alone the AL. Lowell, Gonzales, Loretta, and Youklis? Are you kidding me? Two colanders, a sieve and a sluice box would be better defensively. -Tangent Guys, the Red Sox have committed less errors than any team in baseball. We werent kidding you.
Moving along to division by division analyses
The American League
A.L. East By Matthew L. McCoy
Prediction:Current: Red Sox 91-71 Red Sox 53-33 Yankees 90-72 Yankees 50-36 Blue Jays 85-77 Blue Jays 49-39 Rays 69-93 Orioles 41-49 Orioles 62-100 Rays 39-50
(Raise your hand if you thought the baseball season was broken up into two equal halves of 81 games per? Yeah, me too. I was baffled when I saw that the Orioles had already played 90 of the 162 games. I find that sad and somewhat discrediting to the following opine)
When I initially checked how my picks and various divisional predictions for the year were doing, I got an erection faster than an 8th grader in church. You SO know baseball, I thought, but then quickly came to the realization that my grandmother couldve guessed just as successfully.
I must confess: Im a vagina. Why? Because I asked for the opportunity to analyze the AL East when the Phat Phree staff was dividing up the workload. To paraphrase Lamovsky, thats like preemptively calling the race car when playing Monopoly.
The AL East is boring and predictable and putting yourself out there when forecasting this division is about as risky as betting on black in roulette at a Black Panther-sponsored Vegas Night fundraiser. That being said, the AL East is a division that always makes a sincere run at the Fall Classic so lets discuss the goings-on, shall we?
Win the division or go home to watch the playoffs on a gi-normous flatscreen with a couple of your mistresses. Its that simple. The AL Central is nasty and deep. Unless the Tigers and White Sox blow up in Van de Veldian fashion, the Wild Cards coming out of the Central and not the East like it has since 2002.
In short, my call for the second half is: The Sox will hold, but their pitchings lack of depth will keep them from their second crown in two years. The Yankees will not make the playoffs. The Blue Jays will mash their wash to a more respectable third place. (Great work, Canucks.) The D-Rays, well, their manager looks like Rivers Cuomos illegitimate father. And the Orioles, well, fuck them, theyre a bunch of cheaters.
Some quick rights and wrongs pertaining to the AL East from my original predictions:
Right The A.L. East in 2006 will be the baseball equivalent to the Big East in college basketball theyre going to beat the shit out of each other all year. The unbalanced schedule, meaning each team plays those in their division nineteen times, will cost the American League East the Wild Card berth this year.
Boston Red Sox
Right:Tim Wakefields personal knuckleball catcher, Doug Mirabelli was sent to the Padres as part of the Loretta deal. This will be a running saga all year, as passed ball after passed ball is allowed by whoever gets the job.
(Well, I was sort of right. Theo realized the same thing, just a bit later, and went and got Mirabelli back.)
Despite all these question marks, the Red Sox will surprise a lot of people this year. But the naysayers have been hatin on Theos restructuring the entire off-season. Therefore, an exception can be made in this case.
Wrong:Until he gives birth sometime in July, David Wells will be dominant in Fenway Park yet again.
Oh yeah, look for Roger Clemens to makes amends with the Fenway Faithful and join the club sometime in June.
The New York Yankees
Right: Mariano Rivera walks on water. Hes not human and continues to laugh in the face of all those projecting his eventual age-related demise. Aside from Mo, the Yankees middle relief is a cavernous black hole of question marks. Kyle Farnsworth? Tanyon Sturtze? Mike Myers? Scott Proctor? Geezuz. G.M. Brian Cashman has to be very concerned about his rapidly vanishing strands of hair. And the bullpen of course.
37-year-old righthander Mike Mussina hasn't struck out more than 142 batters or had an ERA below 4.41 in two seasons. Hes on the slow, McDonalds playground slide out to pasture.
Toronto Blue Jays
Right: While its still less than half of both the Yankees and the Red Sox, the Blue Jays will steal some share from their division rivals this year because of the players J.P. Ricciardi brought on board. But stealing a bit of share is all they will do. Talk of Toronto displacing one of the A.L. East stalwarts and maybe even thieving a Wild Card berth is poppycock nonsense.
Baltimore Orioles
Papi clearly sold his soul to the devil.
Right: Kevin Millar was brought in to provide some extra pop in the lineup, even though he has more holes in his swing than Tom Selleck in Mr. Baseball.
Wrong: I suggest Os fans (all six of them left) should get themselves comfortable with the term basement dwellers. Because theyll be hearing it consistently used in reference to their team for at least five months.
(Wrong for now, but theyll retreat to the basement soon enough goddammit.)
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Right: I have no interest in spending any sort of time analyzing this years DRay squad. Partly because theyre going to stink. Again. And partly because no one cares. As always.
Aside from the very legitimate and super promising left-handed fireballer, Scott Kazmir, Tampa Bays pitching is atrocious.
At the beginning of the year, the question was whether the A.L. Central could continue to hold its own, or if last year was just a flash in the pan. Well, considering they now feature the two best records in the Majors, Id say the Central has shown its here to stay. Given our predictions for who would own those records, however, our tenure as baseball oracle may be shorter than a talented Royals stay in K.C.
Detroit Tigers
Right:I think the staff will be good. OK, we had no idea they would be this good. Best ERA in the Majors by almost half a run. Best ERA in the AL by almost three-fourths of a run. Best ERA in the Central by almost a whole run! Their offense hasnt been chopped liver (top 10 in the majors in OPS and runs scored), but their pitching has been amazing.
Wrong:No, they arent going anywhere this year, but respectability is a good goal on the way to contention. Oops. At this point, respectability is so far in the rear view mirror the Tigers cant even see it. . .and if they keep this pace up they might not have to worry about contending so much as getting ready for the playoffs. The question for the Tigers is not if theyre going anywhere this year, but where theyre going.
Chicago White Sox
Right:Thome may return to his slamming ways without the strain of the field wearing on his back. Um, yeah, I think we can take the may out of there now. Thome is back and approximately as good as ever. Not only is Thome providing power to the lineup and protection to Paul Konerko, hes contending for MVP honors.
Wrong: Thomes best days could be behind him, and he will just take the Frank Thomas memorial DL spot. Um, yeah, see above. However, the right and wrong here are still in play, given that Thome didnt get any younger, and the seasons only half over. Big Jim torquing his back is far from an impossibility through the dog days of the season.
Minnesota Twins
Right: . . . their pitching should continue to be stellar. While they started the season off slowly, they have improved dramatically over the course of the season. Their 10th best ERA in the majors is misleading, considering they had an AL-best 2.76 mark in June, leading them to a 19-7 record for the month. Of course, being the Central, they gained almost no ground and still face an uphill battle to even sniff the playoffs.
Wrong: This year - 2nd place We pretty much hit the Twins dead on. Theyre better at the plate, and have excellent pitching, but they arent good enough to play with the big boys. What we neglected to see was that the big boys would be mainly in their own division.
Cleveland Indians
Right: Overall, I see the Indians taking a step backward this year. We didnt know how big a step it would be, however. Jason Johnson sucking we could see coming, but Cliff Lee being mediocre at best? We knew the bullpen would suffer, but a complete implosion? This team has gone from contention to disintegration in 7 short months.
Wrong: the Indians have top-class minor league arms if someone should get hurt Well, those top-class arms were called up not because of injury, but because of complete systemic failure. As such, Fausto Carmona was forced into the bullpen, and Jeremy Sowers has been called up earlier than most people would like. Having gone from taking a couple turns in the rotation to rest the starters to having to save the season, the youngsters have not been able to achieve the impossible. The only hope for the Indians is that this trial by fire serves the kids the way it did the now untouchable Tiger staff.
Kansas City Royals
Right: If theres one thing that makes it easy to write an A.L. Central preview, its the reassuring presence of the Royals at the bottom. Ah, summer. The sun shining, the beer sweating, and the Royals sucking. Once again, this Hollywood Squares of baseball (has-beens and never-weres) are awful. The Sunshine Band is 27.5 games out of first at the break, and thats after going 6-4 in their last 10. However, they have leapfrogged Pittsburgh out of the Major League basement, so they have that going for them.
Wrong: They do sport several young, talented players. . .Mark Teahen, . . .Angel Berroa. . .and CF David DeJesus Teahen has 7 whole dingers on the season. DeJesus has 83 total bases (i.e. 50% fewer than David Ortiz has in homers alone) and one steal. Berroa has a .616 OPS to go along with his 9 errors. Lets face it, when your team All-Star rep has a 5.27 ERA, your team is awful.
A.L. West By Charlie DeMarco
Prediction:Current: As 89-73 As 45-43 Angles 86-76 Rangers 45-43 Rangers 83-79 Angels 43-45 Mariners 70-92 Mariners 43-46
At the start of the season, I took a look at the perennially tight AL West. Its hard to take too much credit for predicting that the As, Angels, and Rangers would be fighting for the top spot in the division, and trailing well behind the leaders of the East and Central. I admitted as much in my intro: Honestly, I dont have any idea which of those three will win the division, but I do know for certain that Seattle stinks.
I did make some predictions, which we will look at here. And as in my preview, I promise no Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim jokes.
Texas Rangers
Right:Phil Neven makes $10 million a year & New GM Jon Daniels has his work cut out for him trying to clean up John Harts mistakes Jon Daniels got off too a hell of start by finding a new home for Nevens ridiculous contract. Sure they are leading the division, but they are actually on pace to win one less game than I predicted.
Wrong:Mediocre is worse than bad. So far, mediocre is good enough in this turd of a division.
Bottom Line: Watch for the repeat of 2004 when the Rangers slid at the end of the season.
Oakland As
Right:Eric Chavez is the anchor, but they have surprisingly little beyond him Chavez isnt off to a very good start (.240), and boy, was I right about them having little beyond him. Not a single player on their roster is batting over .298. Thats fucking pathetic.
Wrong:Their pitching staff is the best in the division by a huge margin So far, this hasnt been true. With a 4.20 ERA, the Oaktown staff is safely in the middle of the pack- along with the LA and Texas.
Bottom Line: The As have been struggling with injuries during the first half, and despite being swept by the Angels going into the break, I still think theyll get it together and win the division.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Its impossible pick out things I was right or wrong about this team. They have been so mediocre thus far, with the exception of getting hot and winning 8 of 9 going into the break, that I just cant bring myself to take credit for anything other predicting a drop off from their 95-win 2005.
They have had some injury problems as I predicted. Most notably Colon having only started 7 games, but with his 1-4 record, they might not be terribly upset.
Bottom Line: Look for the Angels to return to their roster rebuilding ways following this season regardless of the outcome.
Seattle Mariners
The man gets it done.
Right:Ichiro is still the best leadoff hitter in the majors Hes batting .343 for Christs sake, and the rest of the line has been pretty good. Raul Ibanez has 20 dingers, and Sexson has 16, although hes only batting .218.
Wrong:Washburn was a steal Jarrods been a bit of disappointment so far with a 4-9 record.
Bottom Line: Maybe Seattle isnt as bad I thought theyd be, but they still stink. Football camps open soon Seattle fans.
Nice job, idiots Posted: 10/20/2006by: Mikey Cuddyer Hey nice work with your predictions. Wait nevermind, they were awful, The only ones you got right were the ones that are obvious due to the fact that they finish there every fucking year. Twins win the Central, Tigers Wild Card and World Series. You really fucked this year up. The Detroit Tigers Are NOW POMPOUS ASSHOLES Posted: 8/7/2006by: Tigers Are ASSHOLES Like Ivan "DUH!, I don't take steroids" Rodriguez, Jim "I suck Barry Bonds' cock" Leyland, Kenny "My shit don't stink because I stole a respected country legends' name" Rogers & The OTHER Palestinian-Hamas-Hezbollah loving ASSHOLES that stink up the AL & Universe. Jay Mariotti, Pat Tomasulo should pack their FUCKING bags & MOVE to that SHIT CITY!!!!!!!. GET THE FUCK OUT OF CHICAGO, YOU OVERPAID TWERP SONS OF BITCHES!!!!!!!!. And KISS up to Kwame, JESSE JACKASSES' LAPBOY, FRIEND OF THE LATE BETE NOIRE COLEMAN "ALOHA MOTHER FUCKERS" YOUNG. oh and i forgot... Posted: 7/21/2006by: brikz .229 batting average against... Mussina...are you kidding me? Posted: 7/21/2006by: brikz How can you possibly say that you were right by saying Mussina is "on the slow, McDonalds playground slide out to pasture"? The guy has only been a rock of consistancy who started the season with 11 straight quality starts. 11-3, 3.39 ERA, 119 K's compared to only 24 BB's. Do these sound like the numbers of an over the hill player put out to pasture? if your gonna claim to call yourself on your bullshit, then call yourself on your bullshit.... one mistake Posted: 7/19/2006by: Jim Who the fuck is john namath?
